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The logic of illogic

by Brian Sheehan
Indian Management July 2024

Busting the following myths-

MYTH 1: More data always equals better strategic decision-making.
MYTH 2: AI will make strategic decision making a lot easier. 
MYTH 3: Exceptional strategic ideas impact your brand quickly.
MYTH 4: Strategy has to be logical. 
MYTH 5: Strategy is a lot more important than tactics.

Strategy, a word of military origin, is defined as ‘a plan of action or policy designed to achieve a major or overall aim’. In marketing, the main goals of strategy are to provide differentiation for a product or brand, and to create competitive advantage for that brand in the marketplace.

Michael Porter, the famed Harvard Business School professor, put it best: “Strategy is about making choices, trade-offs; it’s about deliberately choosing to be different.” More time, effort, and research are put into strategy in marketing than any other endeavour. Given the centrality of strategy to the marketing success, and the whirlwind effects of digital media, big data, and artificial intelligence (AI) on marketing strategy today, it is useful to consider the myths surrounding strategy in 2024.

MYTH 1: More data always equals better strategic decision-making.

It is obvious that access to data is critical to make good strategic decisions. However, there comes a point where continually looking at more data is counterproductive. Every business curve, biological curve, or normal curve that describes the world around us has the same fundamental shape: that of a bell (or sometimes just the first part of a bell). The reason so many curves are bell shaped is because early inputs have increasing returns to scale.

Those returns slow down over time and can actually become negative. That's true for a factory assembly line, a new product introduction, or even a Petri dish full of amoebas. Access to data is the same. If we just keep heaping more data into the equation, it can lead to problems. One problem is that data can start to contradict itself, making interpretation of that data even more difficult. Similarly, too much data can give us too much to think about, leading to paralysis by analysis.

More worrying is that marketers who continually ask for more data are essentially vacating the strategic playing field. They are hoping the data will tell them what to do; when, in the end, someone needs to make a final decision; and that final decision will always conflict with some of the data. That's why managers get paid the big bucks. In the world of data and analytics, it is not just the quality of the data that really matters (anyone can collect or buy solid data); it is the analytics (how you interpret the data).

MYTH 2: AI will make strategic decision making a lot easier.

It is obvious that AI will help us gather data more quickly, find patterns in the data more quickly, and develop scenario plans more quickly. However, faster does not always mean easier. AI should not be making decisions for you.

That takes human managers, who will still have lots of conflicting ideas and risks to assess before they decide which way to go. One of the biggest concerns here is that risk-averse managers will lean on AI to make the final decision, to attempt to absolve themselves from accountability. Yet humans are in a much better position to make final strategic decisions than AI will ever be. That is because AI is working with data which is inherently backward looking.

And while it understands human patterns, it does not understand human beings. Pattern recognition and human understanding are two very different skills. Some of the best marketers today develop strategies that help their brands define what is interesting, or hip, or cool. They set the future. They use data analysis (of which AI is an exemplar) to inform their strategy, not to define their strategy. AI will make the strategic information gathering process a lot easier, but strategic decision making will still be just as hard.

One of my favourite recent quotes is from Tor Myhren, Vice President of Communications at Apple. He said: “We’ve never tested our creative. We believe we know better than a group of [customers] in a room, what we want to put out into the world.” This is instructive for AI usage as well. You have to know what you want to put out into the world. Can AI help? Of course. But you need to have a vision. Does Apple ignore customers? Of course not. But they know where their role in the marketing process ends.

MYTH 3: Exceptional strategic ideas impact your brand quickly.

The success of big strategic ideas is judged by their impact on business results. But many companies have a blind spot when it comes to evaluating the impact of their strategic ideas. They lack patience. They assume that great strategies will start ‘looking great’ within a short period of time. However, marketing success is based entirely on consumer reaction, which can take time. The biggest and best ideas for repositioning brands often take quite a while to gel with consumers.

That is because consumers already have an image of your brand. It takes a lot to dislodge old thoughts and replace them with new ones. In fact, some of the best marketing and advertising ideas started very slowly and then picked up steam long after they were launched. Interestingly, ideas that build more slowly can often become defining positioning ideas for a brand providing competitive advantage for the brand for a decade or more. They evolve more slowly in consumers’ minds anchoring themselves firmly.

For example, many consumers were nonplussed when they first saw a wedge of lime in a beer bottle. “What’s that all about?” Now, you can’t see a wedge of lime without thinking about Corona.

MYTH 4: Strategy has to be logical.

In most companies, the strategy process is logical and rational. That is a good way to conduct any process. But the actual strategy itself is not just a process, it is a means to a point of competitive advantage. There are many forces in the marketing world today that are undermining logical, rational marketing communications.

Two such forces are clutter and multi-tasking. Our lives are dominated by digital media, where we look at many things simultaneously, and as quickly as possible. Consumers use mental strategies, and often software, that help avoid interruptive advertising messages.

Increasingly, the most effective marketers understand that their advertising messages will only be seen—perhaps even sought out—if they provide entertainment value first and foremost. They are not ads, per se, but content. This is particularly true for younger demographics who see interruptive advertising as a bane of their existence. In the US and Europe, brands like Oatly and Duolingo have been very successful by creating advertising that comes across as chaotic, illogical, and unrehearsed. It gives these brands an aura of fun and authenticity. Such brands are more interested in becoming short-term memes on a regular basis.

One of the best examples anywhere in the world is India’s ubiquitous Amul Girl. She comments on everything from social issues to politics. She stays relevant by being continually unexpected. She even sparks the occasional controversy. Amul is the definition of a brand that provides entertainment value first and foremost. Therefore, people pay attention to their messages and share them. They are not really advertising, but rather, continually interesting, humorous and unexpected social content.

MYTH 5: Strategy is a lot more important than tactics.

Our digital media habits make it harder for marketers and advertisers to get their messages through. Breakthrough tactics are often the only way to get noticed. In other words, tactics today are the leading edge of strategy. No one notices your strategy unless the tactics break through the clutter.

As discussed earlier, some of the most successful strategies today are chaotic. In other words, the communications strategy is nothing more than a series of tactics that gain attention and consistently result in earned media. For many years, the Oreo brand has been a leader in breakthrough tactics. A recent example is their promotional campaign to rename the hamburger menu (that little three-line menu icon) on websites around the internet by re-branding it ‘The Oreo Menu’, because it looks more like two stacked Oreos.

Another great Oreo example was ‘The Art of (Re)Play’ campaign, which they ran recently in China. Oreo unveiled an art piece, the Modern Baizitu, shown in Shanghai subway stations, and on their WeChat mini program, drawing inspiration from Chinese traditional culture to reflect the modern world of children’s play in the style of classic art. Cadbury’s 5 Star chocolate bar in India is another great example of driving a brand via tactics. 5 Star is built on the youthful, counterculture platform of ‘Do Nothing’. To bring this to life, the brand activates a few tactically driven campaigns every year. Most recently they created a campaign for young, single people who want to avoid the dread of Valentine's Day.

They put three volunteers aboard a ship that would travel forward in time, skipping Valentine's Day 2024 completely by crossing the international dateline at exactly 11:59 PM. The event was live streamed from Mumbai and people were invited to be ‘Mission Engineers’ who could contribute to the cruise decision making. Sukesh, CCO at Ogilvy India knows that as brand 5 Star’s agency they must get it noticed above all else.

As he stated: “It’s very spontaneous. We are building salience; we are not building a particular sales occasion.” Choosing a strategy is the most important decision in marketing. It is the key to positioning and competitive advantage. Avoid these five myths and you are bound to improve your chances of success. That is important because, due to the vicissitudes inherent in marketing, many strategies fail even if they are diligently researched and executed. Marketing is a tough job.

Brian Sheehan is the author of The logic of illogic.

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